the Vonnegut philosophy of IT procurement

As someone who happens to be somewhat knowledgeable about the computer industry (and technology in general), I am often asked for advice by my friends and family as to which of the shiny new whizbang doodads they are considering purchasing is the best choice. I ask the only important question, that being, “how do you plan on using it?”, and then pore a bit over the different spec sheets, and make a recommendation.

Usually, that’s the end of it, and everyone’s happy. But occasionally, the person responds back with, “Oh, well, I heard that Whizbang Doodad is going to get the sweet new Frobazz feature in the next version, like 6 months from now! Do you think I should wait or buy it now?”

It’s a very valid and very annoying question, and one that I usually have trouble giving a nice, concise, nutshell answer to. Non-geeks aren’t stupid. They may not know Moore’s law by name, or its technical definition, but they have certainly figured out that whatever they’re getting, it’ll be better, cheaper, and smaller in the future. And if they’re going to be spending a large sum of money, it only makes sense to get the best possible value for their cash, even if it means waiting a few extra months.

On the other hand, if they wait the six months for sweet new Frobazz feature, well, by that time, Beezneez feature will be announced for the next product rev. And explaining that there’s always going to be something better in a little while gets to be annoying (mostly because of the look of disappointment on their faces, since they were expecting a nice unambiguous “yes” or “no” and not some stupid lecture on Gordon Moore and the relentless pace of technological innovation). What to do?

The best answer I’ve come up with is entitled the “Vonnegut philosophy of IT procurement”. Vonnegut’s protagonist in Slaughterhouse 5, Billy Pilgrim, adopts the Tralfamadorian phrase, “so it goes” every time he hears about a death. Wayne D. McGinnis says:

‘the most important function of “so it goes” [a phrase that recurs at each death in the book] . . . , is its imparting a cyclical quality to the novel, both in form and content. Paradoxically, the expression of fatalism serves as a source of renewal, a situation typical of Vonnegut’s works,for it enables the novel to go on despite — even because of — the proliferation of deaths.”’

And our good friend the wikipedia says:

The novel uses certain phrases repetitively, such as “so it goes”, which, used whenever death or dying is mentioned (be it a man, an animal, or the bubbles in champagne), serves to downplay mortality, making it routine and even humorous

In my opinion, this is a useful attitude to maintain when purchasing any sort of technology (iPods, computers, digital cameras, etc.), and my philosophy in a nutshell goes something like this:

When you are ready to make a technology purchase, figure out what features you want, and how much you are willing to spend to get them. Buy it when you need it — no sooner, and no later. After purchase, ignore that market for the next three months, because you will invariably be annoyed that the thing you just bought is now obsolete. So it goes.

That said, there are certain times where it may be useful to wait for the next technology rev because of two reasons:

1. The “certain times” are well known dates (more on this later) and thus, you are not actually waiting indefinitely.

2. Since the “certain times” are such well known dates, many electronics manufacturers are actively trying to deliver Frobazz and Beezneez features to hit those dates.

The major and obvious date would be the Christmas selling season. To a lesser degree, some time in early to mid-August is another good buying time (back to school). (There’s probably a tertiary corollary in there somewhere about Apple products and waiting for Macworld or Expo, but that’s beyond the limits of human sanity.) The electronics manufacturers are trying to get their products to the market with the hot new features that everyone wants, so if it’s September or October and you’re thinking about getting that new computer, it would be worth it to just hold out until early December (or early January if you don’t really think that the 25th of December is all that special of a date) to make that purchase since you’ll probably get the most bang for your buck.

However, in the general case, I will advocate that you buy when you need it, and stop worrying about the fact that 6 months from now, your widget will be cooler. Yes, just ignore it and be happy with what you have. It’s the only way to stay sane.